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Poisson model favours Liverpool (79%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Liverpool face Leicester.

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Full Analysis

Anfield plays host to Liverpool versus Leicester in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.

Current Form

Liverpool's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Liverpool have posted 8W 1D 1L at Anfield — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Anfield.

Leicester (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Leicester's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Liverpool's 2.40 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Leicester's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Liverpool 3W, Leicester 1W, 0D.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2023, ended 3–0 with Liverpool winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Liverpool half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Leicester half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Liverpool 63% and Leicester 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 65% | Leicester 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 2.88 xG and Leicester 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.175 / defence 0.699 | Leicester attack 0.743 / defence 1.608. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.474. Leicester bring a strong defensive rating of 1.608 — this is suppressing Liverpool's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Liverpool's defence rating of 0.699 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Liverpool games / 17 Leicester games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Liverpool 79% | Draw 15% | Leicester 6%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.27 | Draw 6.67 | Leicester 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (79%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Liverpool 40% | Leicester 60%.

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