Liverpool 2-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liverpool at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Liverpool face Fulham.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anfield plays host to Liverpool versus Fulham in Premier League (matchday 32). Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Current Form
Liverpool's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Liverpool have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fulham have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Liverpool, 1.30 for Fulham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Liverpool, 1 for Fulham and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Jan 2026, ended Liverpool 2–2 Fulham — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Liverpool half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Liverpool 62% and Fulham 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 62% | Fulham 58%). Note also that Fulham surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Liverpool recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.77 xG and Fulham 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.194 / defence 1.002 | Fulham attack 0.936 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.263. Data: built from Liverpool's last 69 games and Fulham's last 69.
Result probabilities: Liverpool 49% | Draw 27% | Fulham 24%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 2.03 | Draw 3.69 | Fulham 4.22. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Liverpool's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Liverpool 70% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 32 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 49% | Draw 27% | Fulham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Liverpool 1.77 / Fulham 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.194 / def 1.002 | Fulham attack 0.936 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Fulham xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Liverpool vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Liverpool vs Fulham kick off?
Liverpool vs Fulham kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
Liverpool 2 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Liverpool vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Fulham part of?
Liverpool vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 49% chance of winning, Fulham a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Liverpool and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Liverpool vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Liverpool's attack at 1.19x the league average against Fulham's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.94x) against Liverpool's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Liverpool's last 69 games and Fulham's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.69
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.95
1.19
Fulham xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
4%
24.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Liverpool vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.19 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Liverpool have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 39W 16D 14L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Fulham's form line: 28W 14D 27L from 69 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Liverpool have posted 2.18 PPG from their last 34 home games (22W 8D 4L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 12W 7D 15L from their last 34 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Liverpool are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.41 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Fulham in 67%.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
Liverpool (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Liverpool
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Liverpool vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Liverpool and Fulham in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 39W 16D 14L in their last 69 games (1.93 PPG), while Fulham have gone 28W 14D 27L in their last 69 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Fulham away?
Liverpool's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.18 PPG; Fulham away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fulham in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Liverpool and Fulham, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Liverpool
4
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Liverpool vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Fulham?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Liverpool have won 4, Fulham have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Liverpool 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Fulham?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 65%, Fulham 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Liverpool) and 53% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Liverpool vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Liverpool and Fulham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Liverpool's games and 65% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Liverpool and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Liverpool's matches and 53% of Fulham's.
Do Liverpool and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Liverpool's recent matches and 68% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Fulham 2-0 at Anfield, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.77 xG and Fulham 1.19 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fulham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.19 / defence 1.00 against Fulham attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 49% | Draw 27% | Fulham 24%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 62%, Fulham 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fulham's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. Liverpool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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