Leicester 0-3 Chelsea – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Chelsea at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leicester vs Chelsea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Leicester welcome Chelsea to King Power Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Power Stadium, Leicester have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Chelsea have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Chelsea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chelsea's away record: 4W 1D 0L from 5 road trips in Premier League this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 5 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Chelsea's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Leicester's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Leicester in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Chelsea in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 73% versus Chelsea 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 64% | Chelsea 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 0.84 xG and Chelsea 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.058 / defence 1.212 | Chelsea attack 1.008 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.413. Chelsea's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 Leicester games / 11 Chelsea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 18% | Draw 24% | Chelsea 58%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Chelsea 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Chelsea (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chelsea are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 40% | Chelsea 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Chelsea | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 18% | Draw 24% | Chelsea 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Leicester 0.84 / Chelsea 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.058 / def 1.212 | Chelsea attack 1.008 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Chelsea (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Chelsea xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Chelsea kick off?
Leicester vs Chelsea kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Chelsea?
Leicester 0 - 3 Chelsea.
Where is Leicester vs Chelsea being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Chelsea part of?
Leicester vs Chelsea is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Chelsea?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 18% chance of winning, Chelsea a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chelsea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Chelsea?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Leicester and Chelsea will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Chelsea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leicester and Chelsea in?
Leicester (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Chelsea (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Leicester's attack rating (1.06) and Chelsea's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chelsea's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
18%
5.63
24%
4.14
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.57
1.73
Chelsea xG
5.63
18%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
3%
31.63
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 13.2 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Chelsea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Leicester and Chelsea expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Leicester and 1.73 for Chelsea, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Chelsea?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leicester's recent record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 1L across 11 games — 2.36 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Chelsea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chelsea by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Leicester heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chelsea's away record stands at 4W 1D 0L across 5 trips, a 2.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chelsea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Leicester are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Chelsea are on 2.45 scored and 0.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Chelsea in 27%.
Defensively: Chelsea in 64% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Chelsea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Chelsea in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Chelsea have gone 8W 2D 1L in their last 11 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Chelsea away?
Chelsea's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.40 PPG; Chelsea away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Leicester or Chelsea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Chelsea in 64%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Chelsea have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when Chelsea won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leicester's record when hosting Chelsea specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Leicester
1
Draws
5
Chelsea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Chelsea?
From 6 meetings on record, Leicester have won 0, Chelsea have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Chelsea last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Chelsea 1-0 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Chelsea?
Chelsea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Leicester 40% BTTS, Chelsea 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Leicester) and 40% (Chelsea).
On the defensive side: Chelsea in 80%; Leicester have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Chelsea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Chelsea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Leicester's recent matches and 20% of Chelsea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Chelsea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Leicester's recent games and 40% of Chelsea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Chelsea run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Leicester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chelsea beat Leicester 0-3 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 0.84 xG and Chelsea 1.73 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Leicester fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Chelsea outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.06 / defence 1.21 against Chelsea attack 1.01 / defence 0.77, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 18% | Draw 24% | Chelsea 58%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 64%, Chelsea 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Chelsea's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chelsea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.