Leicester 2-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leicester at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leicester vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to King Power Stadium to face Leicester in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Leicester have collected 1.20 PPG across 5 Premier League outings this season: 2W 0D 3L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Leicester have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burnley's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Burnley have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Leicester. A 1.00 PPG lead over Burnley (1.20 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Leicester have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Burnley in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Leicester — key trading statistics (5 games): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Burnley — key trading statistics (5 games): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leicester 60% and Burnley 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 60% | Burnley 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.19 xG and Burnley 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.817 / defence 1.042 | Burnley attack 0.754 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 1.060 / away 1.097. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing Leicester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Leicester games / 5 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 44% | Draw 30% | Burnley 27%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Burnley 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leicester are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. This conflicts with form data: Leicester 60% | Burnley 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 44% | Draw 30% | Burnley 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Leicester 1.19 / Burnley 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.817 / def 1.042 | Burnley attack 0.754 / def 1.374 | league avg home 1.060 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Leicester (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Burnley xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Burnley kick off?
Leicester vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Burnley?
Leicester 2 - 2 Burnley.
Where is Leicester vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Burnley part of?
Leicester vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 44% chance of winning, Burnley a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Leicester and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leicester and Burnley in?
Leicester (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Burnley (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Leicester's attack rating (0.82) and Burnley's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.75x) against Leicester's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
44%
2.30
30%
3.35
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.05
0.86
Burnley xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
8%
12.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Leicester and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Leicester and 0.86 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leicester's recent record stands at 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Leicester, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 4L across 5 games — 0.20 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Leicester by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Burnley in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Burnley in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Burnley have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Leicester
1
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Burnley?
From 2 meetings on record, Leicester have won 1, Burnley have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2022, when Burnley 0-2 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Burnley?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 60%, Burnley 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Leicester) and 40% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Leicester's games and 60% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leicester vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Leicester's recent games and 40% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Leicester and Burnley share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Leicester and Burnley drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.19 xG and Burnley 0.86 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Leicester beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burnley outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Burnley attack 0.75 / defence 1.37, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 44% | Draw 30% | Burnley 27%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 60%, Burnley 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Leicester arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Leicester scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.