Arsenal 3-1 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arsenal at 39%, yet in-form Tottenham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Arsenal vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Tottenham travel to Emirates Stadium to take on Arsenal. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal stand at 2W 0D 3L from 5 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Arsenal have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Tottenham — All Games: 3W 0D 2L from 5 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Tottenham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tottenham are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Arsenal's 0% and Tottenham's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Arsenal in-play and half-time data (5 games): BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Tottenham in-play and half-time data (5 games): BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Arsenal 0% | Tottenham 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Arsenal 20% | Tottenham 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 1.08 xG and Tottenham 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 0.776 / defence 1.106 | Tottenham attack 0.720 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.143. Arsenal's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Tottenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Arsenal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Arsenal games / 5 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 39% | Draw 31% | Tottenham 30%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Tottenham 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tottenham (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal 0% | Tottenham 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 39% | Draw 31% | Tottenham 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Arsenal 1.08 / Tottenham 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 0.776 / def 1.106 | Tottenham attack 0.720 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Tottenham xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Tottenham kick off?
Arsenal vs Tottenham kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Arsenal 3 - 1 Tottenham.
Where is Arsenal vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Tottenham part of?
Arsenal vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 39% chance of winning, Tottenham a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Arsenal and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Tottenham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arsenal and Tottenham in?
Arsenal (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Tottenham (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Arsenal's attack rating (0.78) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Arsenal's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
39%
2.56
31%
3.25
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Arsenal xG
Total xG
1.99
0.91
Tottenham xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.91 for Tottenham, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arsenal's recent record stands at 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arsenal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 2L across 5 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Tottenham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tottenham by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arsenal heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Arsenal are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Tottenham in 0%.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Tottenham in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Early Season
Tottenham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Arsenal or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Tottenham in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arsenal and Tottenham runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Arsenal have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2022, when Tottenham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arsenal's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Arsenal
1
Draws
1
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 8, Tottenham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Tottenham 1-4 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Tottenham?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Arsenal 0% BTTS, Tottenham 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Arsenal and 40% for Tottenham.
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Tottenham in 60%; Arsenal have failed to score in 60% of games; Tottenham in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Arsenal's recent matches and 0% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arsenal vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Arsenal's recent games and 40% of Tottenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Arsenal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Tottenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Tottenham 3-1 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.08 xG and Tottenham 0.91 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Arsenal beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 0.78 / defence 1.11 against Tottenham attack 0.72 / defence 1.30, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 39% | Draw 31% | Tottenham 30%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 20%, Tottenham 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Tottenham's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Arsenal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arsenal scored 3 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Tottenham shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.