Burnley 0-1 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Arsenal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Arsenal meet at Turf Moor in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Burnley (all games): 0W 1D 3L across 4 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L D L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Burnley have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arsenal have collected 0.75 PPG across 4 Premier League outings this season: 1W 0D 3L. Last five: L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Arsenal have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arsenal arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.75 vs 0.25) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (4 games): BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Arsenal — key trading statistics (4 games): BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 75% versus Arsenal 0%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Burnley 50% | Arsenal 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.59 xG and Arsenal 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.875 / defence 1.251 | Arsenal attack 0.646 / defence 1.542. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.047. Arsenal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.542 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Burnley games / 4 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 54% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 19%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Arsenal 5.26. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Arsenal (0.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 75% | Arsenal 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 54% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Burnley 1.59 / Arsenal 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.875 / def 1.251 | Arsenal attack 0.646 / def 1.542 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Burnley (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Arsenal xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Arsenal kick off?
Burnley vs Arsenal kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Arsenal?
Burnley 0 - 1 Arsenal.
Where is Burnley vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Arsenal part of?
Burnley vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 54% chance of winning, Arsenal a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Burnley and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Arsenal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Arsenal in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L. Arsenal (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Burnley's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Arsenal's attack (0.65x) against Burnley's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.80
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.43
0.85
Arsenal xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
4%
25.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Burnley and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Burnley and 0.85 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Burnley have picked up 0.25 PPG on a 0W 1D 3L record — L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arsenal's form line: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Arsenal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 0.25 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Arsenal in 0%.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Arsenal
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Arsenal have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 0-5 on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Arsenal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
1
Draws
5
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Arsenal?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Arsenal have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Arsenal 1-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 75%, Arsenal 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Burnley) and 25% (Arsenal).
On the defensive side: Arsenal in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Burnley's recent matches and 0% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Burnley's recent games and 25% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Arsenal defy the odds to beat Burnley 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Burnley 0-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.59 xG and Arsenal 0.85 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burnley fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.88 / defence 1.25 against Arsenal attack 0.65 / defence 1.54, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 54% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 19%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Arsenal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 50%, Arsenal 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arsenal's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 0.75 PPG against 0.25. Form held, and they took the win. Burnley conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Arsenal conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.