Fulham 0-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fulham and Burnley meet at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Craven Cottage, Fulham have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Burnley have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Burnley have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Fulham. A 0.90 PPG lead over Burnley (1.30 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 54% versus Burnley 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 64% | Burnley 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 2.31 xG and Burnley 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.282 / defence 0.934 | Burnley attack 0.687 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.307. Fulham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Fulham games / 17 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 70% | Draw 18% | Burnley 12%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Burnley 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 40% | Burnley 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 70% | Draw 18% | Burnley 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 51% | xG Fulham 2.31 / Burnley 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.282 / def 0.934 | Burnley attack 0.687 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Fulham (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Burnley xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Burnley kick off?
Fulham vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Burnley?
Fulham 0 - 2 Burnley.
Where is Fulham vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Burnley part of?
Fulham vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 70% chance of winning, Burnley a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fulham and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Burnley in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Burnley (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fulham's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.69x) against Fulham's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
70%
1.42
18%
5.66
12%
8.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.14
0.84
Burnley xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.66
18%
Draw
8.31
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
10%
10.02
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
1%
83.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Fulham and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Fulham and 0.84 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 10D 24L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 1.75 PPG from 55 outings (28W 12D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Fulham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fulham's home form reads 13W 5D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 1.67 points per game from 27 outings (12W 9D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.62 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Burnley in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 21W 10D 24L in their last 55 games (1.33 PPG), while Burnley have gone 28W 12D 15L in their last 55 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Burnley away?
Burnley's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.63 PPG; Burnley away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Fulham or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Burnley in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fulham have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fulham
1
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Burnley have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Fulham 3-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Burnley?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 56%, Burnley 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Fulham) and 48% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fulham's games and 59% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Fulham's matches and 48% of Burnley's.
Burnley cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Fulham 0-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 2.31 xG and Burnley 0.84 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fulham fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Burnley outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.28 / defence 0.93 against Burnley attack 0.69 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 70% | Draw 18% | Burnley 12%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Burnley win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 64%, Burnley 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.