Burnley 0-2 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Liverpool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Liverpool make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Liverpool (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Liverpool are 1.50 PPG clear of Burnley in recent Premier League fixtures (2.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burnley lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Liverpool winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 50% versus Liverpool 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 57% | Liverpool 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.04 xG and Liverpool 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.793 / defence 1.433 | Liverpool attack 1.102 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.326. Burnley's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Liverpool's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 18 Burnley games / 56 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 18% | Draw 20% | Liverpool 62%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 5.56 | Draw 5.00 | Liverpool 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 40% | Liverpool 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Dec 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 18% | Draw 20% | Liverpool 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Burnley 1.04 / Liverpool 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.793 / def 1.433 | Liverpool attack 1.102 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Liverpool xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Liverpool kick off?
Burnley vs Liverpool kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Liverpool?
Burnley 0 - 2 Liverpool.
Where is Burnley vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Liverpool part of?
Burnley vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 18% chance of winning, Liverpool a 62% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Burnley and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Liverpool?
Record (2 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 0 | Liverpool 2W.
What form are Burnley and Liverpool in?
Burnley (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Liverpool (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.79) and Liverpool's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Liverpool's attack (1.10x) against Burnley's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 2.09.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
18%
5.56
20%
4.89
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.13
2.09
Liverpool xG
5.56
18%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
12%
8.12
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
2%
45.15
22%
4.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Burnley and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Burnley and 2.09 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Liverpool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley come into this having played 56 games, going 29W 12D 15L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Liverpool sit at 1.89 PPG from 56 outings (30W 16D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for Burnley against 1.89 for Liverpool. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Burnley's home form reads 16W 3D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Liverpool have taken 1.39 points per game from 28 outings (10W 9D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Liverpool's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Liverpool in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 29W 12D 15L in their last 56 games (1.77 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 30W 16D 10L in their last 56 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Liverpool away?
Burnley's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.82 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Burnley or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Liverpool in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Liverpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
1
Draws
5
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Liverpool?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Liverpool have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Liverpool 1-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 43%, Liverpool 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Burnley and 64% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Liverpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Burnley's recent matches and 64% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Burnley's matches and 64% of Liverpool's.
Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Burnley 0-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.04 xG and Liverpool 2.09 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.79 / defence 1.43 against Liverpool attack 1.10 / defence 0.79, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 18% | Draw 20% | Liverpool 62%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 57%, Liverpool 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Liverpool's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.77 PPG, Liverpool 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liverpool win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.