Bournemouth 3-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fulham travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth in Premier League (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bournemouth stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Fulham — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Fulham away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bournemouth are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Bournemouth, 0 for Fulham and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Bournemouth 2–1 Fulham — a Bournemouth win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fulham in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 44% versus Fulham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 54% | Fulham 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.60 xG and Fulham 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.835 / defence 1.083 | Fulham attack 0.938 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.324. Data: built from Bournemouth's last 55 games and Fulham's last 56.
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 44% | Draw 24% | Fulham 32%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.30 | Draw 4.11 | Fulham 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bournemouth's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bournemouth 50% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 44% | Draw 24% | Fulham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Bournemouth 1.60 / Fulham 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.835 / def 1.083 | Fulham attack 0.938 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Fulham xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bournemouth vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Bournemouth vs Fulham kick off?
Bournemouth vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Bournemouth 3 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Bournemouth vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Fulham part of?
Bournemouth vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 44% chance of winning, Fulham a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bournemouth and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bournemouth vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (0.83) and Fulham's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bournemouth's last 55 games and Fulham's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
44%
2.30
24%
4.11
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.95
1.35
Fulham xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
6%
15.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bournemouth vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.35 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bournemouth come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 10D 28L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.31 PPG from 55 outings (21W 9D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.11 PPG, Fulham on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bournemouth's home form reads 8W 7D 12L across their last 27 home games, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 27 away games (8W 4D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.44 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Fulham
Blended
Bournemouth (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bournemouth
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Bournemouth vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Bournemouth and Fulham in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 17W 10D 28L in their last 55 games (1.11 PPG), while Fulham have gone 21W 9D 25L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Fulham away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.15 PPG; Fulham away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bournemouth have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won Bournemouth 3-0 Fulham.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bournemouth
4
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Bournemouth vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Fulham?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bournemouth have won 5, Fulham have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Fulham?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 44%, Fulham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bournemouth) and 59% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth have failed to score in 41% of games; Fulham in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bournemouth vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bournemouth and Fulham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 56% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bournemouth and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Bournemouth's recent games and 59% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 70% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bournemouth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Fulham 3-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.60 xG and Fulham 1.35 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fulham landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Fulham attack 0.94 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 44% | Draw 24% | Fulham 32%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 54%, Fulham 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.11 PPG, Fulham 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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