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Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Aston Villa 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Aston Villa 1-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.61 xG and Aston Villa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Aston Villa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Aston Villa attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 44% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 28%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 56%, Aston Villa 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Aston Villa's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.39 PPG, Aston Villa 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights