Everton 1-4 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Newcastle at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Newcastle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Newcastle travel to Goodison Park to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Thursday 27 April 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Goodison Park, Everton have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Newcastle — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Newcastle have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Newcastle's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Everton's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Everton, 2 for Newcastle and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Newcastle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Newcastle trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 48% versus Newcastle 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 46% | Newcastle 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 0.92 xG and Newcastle 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.724 / defence 1.069 | Newcastle attack 1.180 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.256. Everton's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 70 Everton games / 69 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 22% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 53%. Fair-value odds: Everton 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Newcastle 1.89. Newcastle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newcastle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Everton 50% | Newcastle 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 22% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Everton 0.92 / Newcastle 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.724 / def 1.069 | Newcastle attack 1.180 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Newcastle xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Newcastle kick off?
Everton vs Newcastle kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 27 April 2023 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Newcastle?
Everton 1 - 4 Newcastle.
Where is Everton vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Newcastle part of?
Everton vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 22% chance of winning, Newcastle a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Everton and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
Record (3 meetings): Everton 1W | Draws 0 | Newcastle 2W.
What form are Everton and Newcastle in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Newcastle (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.72) and Newcastle's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
22%
4.56
25%
3.97
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Everton xG
Total xG
2.51
1.58
Newcastle xG
4.56
22%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
4%
22.23
21%
4.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.9 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Everton and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Everton and 1.58 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Everton have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 16W 16D 37L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Newcastle's form line: 29W 21D 19L from 69 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Newcastle are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.29 PPG from 34 outings (13W 5D 16L).
On the road, Newcastle have gone 12W 10D 12L from 34 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.42 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Newcastle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 16W 16D 37L in their last 69 games (0.93 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 29W 21D 19L in their last 69 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Newcastle away?
Newcastle's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.29 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Everton or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Newcastle in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Newcastle runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton
2
Draws
4
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 4, Newcastle have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Newcastle 2-3 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 44%, Newcastle 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Everton) and 53% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 26% of games; Newcastle in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Everton's recent matches and 56% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Everton's recent games and 53% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Newcastle run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Everton 1-4 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 0.92 xG and Newcastle 1.58 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle outscored their 1.58 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.72 / defence 1.07 against Newcastle attack 1.18 / defence 0.84, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 22% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 53%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 46%, Newcastle 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Newcastle's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.