West Ham 1-2 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liverpool at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Liverpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
London Stadium plays host to West Ham versus Liverpool in Premier League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Ham have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Ham have posted 3W 3D 4L at London Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Liverpool (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Liverpool's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for West Ham, 1.80 for Liverpool — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: West Ham 1W, Liverpool 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Liverpool winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 35 at home): BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 35 at away): BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 52% versus Liverpool 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 46% | Liverpool 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.51 xG and Liverpool 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.010 / defence 1.132 | Liverpool attack 1.097 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.250. Data: 69 West Ham games / 69 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 37% | Draw 24% | Liverpool 39%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Liverpool 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: West Ham 50% | Liverpool 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 37% | Draw 24% | Liverpool 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG West Ham 1.51 / Liverpool 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.010 / def 1.132 | Liverpool attack 1.097 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Liverpool xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Liverpool kick off?
West Ham vs Liverpool kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Liverpool?
West Ham 1 - 2 Liverpool.
Where is West Ham vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Liverpool part of?
West Ham vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 37% chance of winning, Liverpool a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both West Ham and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Liverpool?
Record (3 meetings): West Ham 1W | Draws 0 | Liverpool 2W.
What form are West Ham and Liverpool in?
West Ham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Liverpool (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates West Ham's attack at 1.01x the league average against Liverpool's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Liverpool's attack (1.10x) against West Ham's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
37%
2.69
24%
4.16
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.06
1.55
Liverpool xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
8%
12.71
9%
11.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are West Ham and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for West Ham and 1.55 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 25W 15D 29L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Liverpool's form line: 42W 16D 11L from 69 games, 2.06 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against West Ham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.54 PPG from 35 outings (15W 9D 11L).
On the road, Liverpool have gone 17W 8D 10L from 35 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
West Ham are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.22 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Current Season
Liverpool
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Liverpool in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 25W 15D 29L in their last 69 games (1.30 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 42W 16D 11L in their last 69 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.54 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.69 PPG.
Have West Ham or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Liverpool in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Liverpool go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liverpool won 0-5 on 29 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Liverpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
West Ham
1
Draws
8
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Liverpool?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 1, Liverpool have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Liverpool 5-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 63%, Liverpool 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (West Ham) and 66% (Liverpool). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Liverpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of West Ham's games and 49% of Liverpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 49% of West Ham's matches and 66% of Liverpool's.
Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out West Ham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat West Ham 1-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.51 xG and Liverpool 1.55 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Liverpool attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 37% | Draw 24% | Liverpool 39%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 46%, Liverpool 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Liverpool's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.