Leicester 2-2 Everton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Leicester at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leicester host Everton at King Power Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Leicester's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at King Power Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Everton's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Leicester at 0.50 PPG versus Everton's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Leicester, 1 for Everton and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Leicester winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Leicester in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Everton in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 62% versus Everton 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 62% | Everton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.36 xG and Everton 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.815 / defence 1.093 | Everton attack 0.687 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.290. Data: 71 Leicester games / 71 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 46% | Draw 28% | Everton 27%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Everton 3.70. Leicester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leicester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 50% | Everton 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 46% | Draw 28% | Everton 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Leicester 1.36 / Everton 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.815 / def 1.093 | Everton attack 0.687 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Leicester (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Everton xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Everton kick off?
Leicester vs Everton kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 1 May 2023 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Everton?
Leicester 2 - 2 Everton.
Where is Leicester vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Everton part of?
Leicester vs Everton is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 46% chance of winning, Everton a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Leicester and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Everton?
Record (3 meetings): Leicester 1W | Draws 1 | Everton 1W.
What form are Leicester and Everton in?
Leicester (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Everton (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Leicester's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.64
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.33
0.97
Everton xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
7%
14.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Leicester and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Leicester and 0.97 for Everton, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leicester come into this having played 71 games, going 22W 15D 34L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Everton sit at 0.94 PPG from 71 outings (17W 16D 38L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leicester on 1.14 PPG, Everton on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Leicester's home form reads 14W 7D 14L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 0.57 points per game from 35 outings (3W 11D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Leicester are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.96 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Everton in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 22W 15D 34L in their last 71 games (1.14 PPG), while Everton have gone 17W 16D 38L in their last 71 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Everton away?
Leicester's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.40 PPG; Everton away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Everton won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leicester's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Leicester
3
Draws
2
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Everton?
From 6 meetings on record, Leicester have won 1, Everton have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Everton 4-0 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 49%, Everton 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Leicester) and 51% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leicester have failed to score in 31% of games; Everton in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Leicester's recent matches and 51% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Leicester's matches and 51% of Everton's.
Leicester and Everton share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester and Everton finished level at 2-2 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.36 xG and Everton 0.97 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Everton outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.81 / defence 1.09 against Everton attack 0.69 / defence 1.05, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 46% | Draw 28% | Everton 27%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 62%, Everton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.14 PPG, Everton 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.