🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Newcastle run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Everton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Everton 1-4 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.41 xG and Newcastle 0.84 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle outscored their 0.84 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Newcastle attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 50% | Draw 27% | Newcastle 22%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Newcastle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 36%, Newcastle 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Newcastle's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.32 PPG, Newcastle 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights