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Poisson model rates Everton at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Newcastle travel to Hill Dickinson Stadium to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 17:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Newcastle — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier League this season, Newcastle have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Everton) versus 1.40 (Newcastle). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Everton, 3 for Newcastle and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Everton winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Everton trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Newcastle trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 42% versus Newcastle 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 36% | Newcastle 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.41 xG and Newcastle 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.891 / defence 0.889 | Newcastle attack 0.788 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.198. Data: 50 Everton games / 50 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton 50% | Draw 27% | Newcastle 22%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Newcastle 4.55. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Newcastle 50% BTTS from recent games.

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