Fulham 0-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Fulham welcome Everton to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fulham at 1.60 PPG versus Everton's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fulham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Everton in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Everton trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 58% versus Everton 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 62% | Everton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.59 xG and Everton 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.050 / defence 1.422 | Everton attack 0.854 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.092. Data: 12 Fulham games / 50 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 42% | Draw 27% | Everton 31%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Everton 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Everton 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 42% | Draw 27% | Everton 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Fulham 1.59 / Everton 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.050 / def 1.422 | Everton attack 0.854 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Fulham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Everton xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Everton kick off?
Fulham vs Everton kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Everton?
Fulham 0 - 0 Everton.
Where is Fulham vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Everton part of?
Fulham vs Everton is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 42% chance of winning, Everton a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fulham and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Everton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Everton in?
Fulham (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Everton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.05x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.73
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.92
1.33
Everton xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
6%
16.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fulham and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Fulham and 1.33 for Everton, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 27W 11D 12L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton's form line: 14W 10D 26L from 50 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fulham are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fulham have posted 2.00 PPG from 25 outings (15W 5D 5L).
On the road, Everton have gone 3W 6D 16L from 25 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Everton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.08 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Everton in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 27W 11D 12L in their last 50 games (1.84 PPG), while Everton have gone 14W 10D 26L in their last 50 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Everton away?
Fulham's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.00 PPG; Everton away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Fulham or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Everton in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Everton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Everton have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Fulham's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fulham
3
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Everton?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Everton have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fulham 1-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 60%, Everton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Fulham and 56% for Everton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Everton in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Everton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fulham's games and 60% of Everton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Fulham's matches and 56% of Everton's.
Stalemate at Fulham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 14, as Fulham and Everton drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.59 xG and Everton 1.33 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fulham fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Everton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.05 / defence 1.42 against Everton attack 0.85 / defence 0.92, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 42% | Draw 27% | Everton 31%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 62%, Everton 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.