Everton 1-0 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goodison Park plays host to Everton versus Bournemouth in Premier League, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton at Goodison Park this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Bournemouth (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bournemouth's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Bournemouth arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Everton, 1 for Bournemouth and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 0–3 with Bournemouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Everton half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 51% versus Bournemouth 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 49% | Bournemouth 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.22 xG and Bournemouth 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.693 / defence 1.268 | Bournemouth attack 0.756 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.303. Everton's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Everton games / 37 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 37%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Bournemouth 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Everton 50% | Bournemouth 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Everton 1.22 / Bournemouth 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.693 / def 1.268 | Bournemouth attack 0.756 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bournemouth xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Bournemouth kick off?
Everton vs Bournemouth kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Bournemouth?
Everton 1 - 0 Bournemouth.
Where is Everton vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Bournemouth part of?
Everton vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 36% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Everton and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Bournemouth?
Record (1 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 0 | Bournemouth 1W.
What form are Everton and Bournemouth in?
Everton (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Bournemouth (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.69x the league average against Bournemouth's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bournemouth's attack (0.76x) against Everton's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.68
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Everton xG
Total xG
2.47
1.25
Bournemouth xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Everton and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Everton and 1.25 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton come into this having played 75 games, going 18W 18D 39L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Bournemouth sit at 1.45 PPG from 75 outings (31W 16D 28L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Bournemouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Everton's home form reads 14W 5D 18L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Bournemouth have taken 1.32 points per game from 37 outings (14W 7D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.29 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 18W 18D 39L in their last 75 games (0.96 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 31W 16D 28L in their last 75 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Bournemouth away?
Bournemouth's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.27 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Everton or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won 3-0 on 12 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bournemouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Everton
0
Draws
5
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Bournemouth?
From 8 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Bournemouth have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Everton 1-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 46%, Bournemouth 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Everton) and 46% (Bournemouth).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bournemouth in 35%; Everton have failed to score in 27% of games; Bournemouth in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Everton's recent matches and 35% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Everton's recent games and 46% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Bournemouth 1-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.22 xG and Bournemouth 1.25 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bournemouth landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.69 / defence 1.27 against Bournemouth attack 0.76 / defence 1.14, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 36% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 37%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 49%, Bournemouth 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Bournemouth's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.