Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crystal Palace host Nottingham Forest at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Crystal Palace — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crystal Palace have posted 3W 5D 2L at Selhurst Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nottingham Forest's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Crystal Palace carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Crystal Palace have won 0, Nottingham Forest 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Nottingham Forest winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Crystal Palace in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Nottingham Forest in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 48% versus Nottingham Forest 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 45% | Nottingham Forest 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.87 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.872 / defence 0.894 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.742 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.303. Nottingham Forest bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing Crystal Palace's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Crystal Palace games / 37 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 61% | Draw 22% | Nottingham Forest 17%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Nottingham Forest 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Crystal Palace (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Crystal Palace 40% | Nottingham Forest 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 61% | Draw 22% | Nottingham Forest 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Crystal Palace 1.87 / Nottingham Forest 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.872 / def 0.894 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.742 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Nottingham Forest xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Crystal Palace 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 61% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest?
Record (1 meetings): Crystal Palace 0W | Draws 0 | Nottingham Forest 1W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.87) and Nottingham Forest's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.54
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.74
0.86
Nottingham Forest xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
3%
38.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 0.86 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 22W 26D 27L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 31W 19D 25L from 75 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crystal Palace on 1.23 PPG, Nottingham Forest on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.51 PPG from 37 outings (14W 14D 9L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 10W 10D 17L from 37 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nottingham Forest's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crystal Palace come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.33 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 22W 26D 27L in their last 75 games (1.23 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 31W 19D 25L in their last 75 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.51 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Nottingham Forest specifically: 0W 4D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Crystal Palace
6
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest?
From 8 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 0, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Nottingham Forest 1-1 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 49%, Nottingham Forest 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crystal Palace) and 40% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Crystal Palace have failed to score in 30% of games; Nottingham Forest in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 43% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 40% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest finished level at 1-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.87 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.86 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Crystal Palace fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.87 / defence 0.89 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.74 / defence 1.39, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 61% | Draw 22% | Nottingham Forest 17%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 45%, Nottingham Forest 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.23 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.