Everton 0-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Fulham travel to Goodison Park to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 August 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Everton at Goodison Park this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fulham — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fulham haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Everton) versus 1.30 (Fulham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Everton, 1 for Fulham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 1–3 with Fulham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Fulham in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 47% versus Fulham 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 42% | Fulham 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.19 xG and Fulham 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.836 / defence 1.080 | Fulham attack 0.971 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.325. Data: 38 Everton games / 38 Fulham games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Everton 32% | Draw 26% | Fulham 41%. Fair-value odds: Everton 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Fulham 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Everton 40% | Fulham 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 32% | Draw 26% | Fulham 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Everton 1.19 / Fulham 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.836 / def 1.080 | Fulham attack 0.971 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Fulham (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Fulham xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Fulham kick off?
Everton vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Fulham?
Everton 0 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Everton vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Fulham part of?
Everton vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 32% chance of winning, Fulham a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Everton and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Fulham?
Record (2 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 1 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Everton and Fulham in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Everton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.84) and Fulham's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
32%
3.11
26%
3.80
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Everton xG
Total xG
2.58
1.39
Fulham xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Everton and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Everton and 1.39 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 38 games, going 8W 12D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. Everton haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.37 PPG from 38 outings (15W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. Fulham haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 6W 3D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (7W 2D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.45 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Pre-Season
Fulham
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Fulham in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 8W 12D 18L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while Fulham have gone 15W 7D 16L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.11 PPG; Fulham away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Everton have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Everton's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Everton
3
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Fulham have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fulham 1-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Fulham?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 42%, Fulham 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Everton) and 58% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Fulham in 32%; Everton have failed to score in 26% of games; Fulham in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Everton's recent matches and 53% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Everton's recent games and 58% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Everton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Everton 0-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.19 xG and Fulham 1.39 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against Fulham attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 32% | Draw 26% | Fulham 41%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 42%, Fulham 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fulham's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.