🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Crystal Palace defy the odds to beat Newcastle 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat Newcastle 2-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 0.96 xG and Newcastle 1.17 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Crystal Palace beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.73 / defence 1.01 against Newcastle attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 28% | Draw 34% | Newcastle 38%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Crystal Palace win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 46%, Newcastle 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Newcastle's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.35 PPG, Newcastle 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights