Crystal Palace 3-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crystal Palace host Everton at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Crystal Palace have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park this season: 2W 4D 1L from 7 home games — 1.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in Premier League this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crystal Palace at 1.10 PPG versus Everton's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Everton in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 47% versus Everton 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 53% | Everton 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.55 xG and Everton 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.958 / defence 1.123 | Everton attack 0.666 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.219. Everton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.395 — this is suppressing Crystal Palace's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Crystal Palace games / 15 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 52% | Draw 26% | Everton 22%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Everton 4.55. Crystal Palace hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Crystal Palace 57% | Everton 43%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 52% | Draw 26% | Everton 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Crystal Palace 1.55 / Everton 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.958 / def 1.123 | Everton attack 0.666 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Everton xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Everton kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Everton kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Crystal Palace 3 - 1 Everton.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Everton part of?
Crystal Palace vs Everton is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 52% chance of winning, Everton a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Crystal Palace and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Everton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crystal Palace and Everton in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Everton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.96) and Everton's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.91
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.46
0.91
Everton xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
5%
21.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 0.91 for Everton, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 3W 7D 5L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton's form line: 5W 3D 7L from 15 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crystal Palace on 1.07 PPG, Everton on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L).
On the road, Everton have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Everton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crystal Palace come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.27 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Everton in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 3W 7D 5L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Everton have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Everton away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.43 PPG; Everton away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crystal Palace and Everton runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Everton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Everton specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
6
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 1, Everton have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 57%, Everton 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Crystal Palace) and 57% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Everton in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 43% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crystal Palace vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 57% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Crystal Palace cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Everton 3-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.55 xG and Everton 0.91 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Crystal Palace beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.96 / defence 1.12 against Everton attack 0.67 / defence 1.40, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 52% | Draw 26% | Everton 22%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 53%, Everton 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.07 PPG, Everton 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.