Burnley 0-0 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Ham at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs West Ham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
West Ham make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Burnley (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 2L across 6 games at Turf Moor this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
West Ham's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. West Ham are 1.00 PPG clear of Burnley in recent Premier League fixtures (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 57% and West Ham 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 43% | West Ham 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.20 xG and West Ham 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.982 / defence 1.285 | West Ham attack 0.992 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.250. Data: 14 Burnley games / 15 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 29% | Draw 25% | West Ham 46%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | West Ham 2.17. West Ham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Ham at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Ham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 67% | West Ham 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 29% | Draw 25% | West Ham 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Burnley 1.20 / West Ham 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.982 / def 1.285 | West Ham attack 0.992 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: West Ham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.59
West Ham xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs West Ham kick off?
Burnley vs West Ham kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs West Ham?
Burnley 0 - 0 West Ham.
Where is Burnley vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs West Ham part of?
Burnley vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 29% chance of winning, West Ham a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Burnley and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and West Ham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and West Ham in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. West Ham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Burnley's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against West Ham's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (0.99x) against Burnley's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
29%
3.47
25%
4.04
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.79
1.59
West Ham xG
3.47
29%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
6%
17.08
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Burnley and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Burnley and 1.59 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley come into this having played 14 games, going 1W 7D 6L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.71 PPG from 14 outings (7W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Ham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Burnley's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 1.67 points per game from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Ham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.71 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and West Ham in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 1W 7D 6L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while West Ham have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or West Ham away?
West Ham's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.00 PPG; West Ham away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: West Ham have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against West Ham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
3
Draws
3
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and West Ham?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, West Ham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Burnley 0-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 67%, West Ham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Burnley) and 50% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: West Ham in 33%; Burnley have failed to score in 33% of games; West Ham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play West Ham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Burnley's games and 50% of West Ham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burnley vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Burnley's recent games and 50% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Burnley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and West Ham finished level at 0-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.20 xG and West Ham 1.59 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.2 short of their projected output. West Ham landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.98 / defence 1.28 against West Ham attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 29% | Draw 25% | West Ham 46%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 43%, West Ham 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
West Ham's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, West Ham arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.