Everton 2-1 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 42%, yet in-form Arsenal provide a compelling counter-argument — this Everton vs Arsenal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Arsenal at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 games at Goodison Park this term (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Arsenal have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Arsenal — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Everton in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Arsenal in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 50% versus Arsenal 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 57% | Arsenal 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.49 xG and Arsenal 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.914 / defence 1.402 | Arsenal attack 0.714 / defence 1.413. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.276. Arsenal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.413 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Everton games / 14 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 42% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 32%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Arsenal 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Arsenal (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Everton 57% | Arsenal 14% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 42% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Everton 1.49 / Arsenal 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.914 / def 1.402 | Arsenal attack 0.714 / def 1.413 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Everton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Arsenal xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Arsenal kick off?
Everton vs Arsenal kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Arsenal?
Everton 2 - 1 Arsenal.
Where is Everton vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Arsenal part of?
Everton vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 42% chance of winning, Arsenal a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Everton and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Arsenal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton and Arsenal in?
Everton (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Arsenal (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Everton's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.92
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Everton xG
Total xG
2.77
1.28
Arsenal xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Everton and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Everton and 1.28 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton's recent record stands at 4W 3D 7L from 14 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 5L across 14 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arsenal by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Everton have managed 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arsenal's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arsenal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 1.21 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal in 29%.
Defensively: Arsenal in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 7W 2D 5L in their last 14 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Arsenal away?
Everton's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.43 PPG; Arsenal away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Everton or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Arsenal in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Arsenal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Arsenal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Arsenal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Arsenal specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton
2
Draws
6
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Arsenal?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, Arsenal have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arsenal 2-0 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 57%, Arsenal 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Everton) and 43% (Arsenal).
On the defensive side: Arsenal in 43%; Everton have failed to score in 29% of games; Arsenal in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Everton's recent matches and 14% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Everton's recent games and 43% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out Arsenal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Arsenal 2-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.49 xG and Arsenal 1.28 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.91 / defence 1.40 against Arsenal attack 0.71 / defence 1.41, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 42% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 32%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 57%, Arsenal 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Arsenal's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.