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Shock result as Burnley defy the odds to beat Crystal Palace 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Crystal Palace 2-3 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.44 xG and Burnley 1.01 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.71 / defence 1.01 against Burnley attack 0.78 / defence 1.38, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 44% | Draw 33% | Burnley 23%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Burnley win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 44%, Burnley 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Burnley's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.35 PPG, Burnley 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights