Arsenal 2-0 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arsenal at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arsenal vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Emirates Stadium plays host to Arsenal versus West Ham in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Wednesday 15 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arsenal have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arsenal have posted 6W 1D 1L at Emirates Stadium — 2.38 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Emirates Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.38 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Arsenal are significantly better at Emirates Stadium than their overall form suggests.
West Ham's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham's away record: 4W 2D 2L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Arsenal, 1.70 for West Ham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Arsenal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 31% versus West Ham 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 50% | West Ham 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 1.25 xG and West Ham 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.140 / defence 0.897 | West Ham attack 0.882 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.233. Data: 16 Arsenal games / 16 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 43% | Draw 29% | West Ham 29%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | West Ham 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arsenal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal 38% | West Ham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 43% | Draw 29% | West Ham 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Arsenal 1.25 / West Ham 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.140 / def 0.897 | West Ham attack 0.882 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.98
West Ham xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs West Ham kick off?
Arsenal vs West Ham kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs West Ham?
Arsenal 2 - 0 West Ham.
Where is Arsenal vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs West Ham part of?
Arsenal vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 43% chance of winning, West Ham a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Arsenal and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and West Ham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arsenal and West Ham in?
Arsenal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. West Ham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Arsenal's attack rating (1.14) and West Ham's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (0.88x) against Arsenal's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.50
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.23
0.98
West Ham xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Arsenal and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.98 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arsenal come into this having played 16 games, going 8W 2D 6L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (8W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Arsenal against 1.75 for West Ham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Arsenal's home form reads 6W 1D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Arsenal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 1.75 points per game from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arsenal are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.75 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham in 69%.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and West Ham in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 8W 2D 6L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while West Ham have gone 8W 4D 4L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or West Ham away?
Arsenal's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.38 PPG; West Ham away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Arsenal or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, West Ham in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Arsenal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 0-6 on 11 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arsenal have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Ham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Arsenal
1
Draws
2
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and West Ham?
From 10 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 7, West Ham have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when West Ham 0-1 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and West Ham?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 38%, West Ham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Arsenal) and 50% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; West Ham in 38%; West Ham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Arsenal's recent matches and 50% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arsenal vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Arsenal's recent games and 50% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Arsenal cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over West Ham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat West Ham 2-0 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.25 xG and West Ham 0.98 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. West Ham landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.14 / defence 0.90 against West Ham attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 43% | Draw 29% | West Ham 29%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 50%, West Ham 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
West Ham's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arsenal 1.62 PPG, West Ham 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arsenal win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.