Burnley 0-2 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Ham at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burnley face West Ham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
West Ham make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Burnley (all games): 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
West Ham's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
West Ham's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Burnley against 0.80 for West Ham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Burnley, 2 for West Ham and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Burnley 2–3 West Ham — a West Ham win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 40% versus West Ham 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 40% | West Ham 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.37 xG and West Ham 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.775 / defence 1.251 | West Ham attack 0.953 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.252. Burnley's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.37. Burnley's defence rating of 1.251 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing West Ham's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 24 games and West Ham's last 62.
Result probabilities: Burnley 32% | Draw 31% | West Ham 37%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.14 | Draw 3.25 | West Ham 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Ham at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Ham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and West Ham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 50% (last 10 home games) | West Ham 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 32% | Draw 31% | West Ham 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Burnley 1.37 / West Ham 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.775 / def 1.251 | West Ham attack 0.953 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: West Ham (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.49
West Ham xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs West Ham FAQs
What time does Burnley vs West Ham kick off?
Burnley vs West Ham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs West Ham?
Burnley 0 - 2 West Ham.
Where is Burnley vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs West Ham part of?
Burnley vs West Ham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 32% chance of winning, West Ham a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Burnley and West Ham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burnley vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Burnley's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against West Ham's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (0.95x) against Burnley's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 24 games and West Ham's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
32%
3.14
31%
3.25
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.86
1.49
West Ham xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
7%
13.95
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs West Ham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Burnley and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Burnley and 1.49 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley come into this having played 62 games, going 26W 20D 16L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.02 PPG from 62 outings (16W 15D 31L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Burnley carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of West Ham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Burnley's home form reads 13W 12D 6L across their last 31 home games, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 31 away games (8W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.21 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham in 63%.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
West Ham
Blended
Burnley (Home) vs West Ham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Burnley vs West Ham Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and West Ham in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 26W 20D 16L in their last 62 games (1.58 PPG), while West Ham have gone 16W 15D 31L in their last 62 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or West Ham away?
Burnley's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.65 PPG; West Ham away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Burnley or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, West Ham in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Burnley and West Ham, the earliest from December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Premier League, Championship. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against West Ham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Burnley
4
Draws
3
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs West Ham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and West Ham?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 0, West Ham have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and West Ham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Burnley 2-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 36%, West Ham 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Burnley) and 52% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs West Ham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and West Ham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Burnley's recent matches and 61% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and West Ham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Burnley's recent games and 52% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and West Ham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Burnley's recent matches and 74% of West Ham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Ham cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Burnley 0-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.37 xG and West Ham 1.49 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against West Ham attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 32% | Draw 31% | West Ham 37%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 40%, West Ham 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
West Ham's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with West Ham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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