Burnley 1-0 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tottenham at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Tottenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Tottenham travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 23 February 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Tottenham have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tottenham's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tottenham are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Tottenham in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 50% versus Tottenham 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 41% | Tottenham 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.90 xG and Tottenham 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.694 / defence 0.916 | Tottenham attack 0.926 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.328. Burnley's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Burnley games / 23 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 29% | Draw 31% | Tottenham 41%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Tottenham 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 50% | Tottenham 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 29% | Draw 31% | Tottenham 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Burnley 0.90 / Tottenham 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.694 / def 0.916 | Tottenham attack 0.926 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Tottenham xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Tottenham kick off?
Burnley vs Tottenham kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 23 February 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Tottenham?
Burnley 1 - 0 Tottenham.
Where is Burnley vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Tottenham part of?
Burnley vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 29% chance of winning, Tottenham a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Burnley and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Tottenham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Tottenham in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Tottenham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.69) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
29%
3.49
31%
3.25
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.02
1.13
Tottenham xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
9%
10.77
17%
6.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.9 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Burnley and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Burnley and 1.13 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Burnley have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 2W 11D 9L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tottenham's form line: 11W 3D 8L from 22 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tottenham are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burnley have posted 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (1W 6D 3L).
On the road, Tottenham have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.36 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 2W 11D 9L in their last 22 games (0.77 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 11W 3D 8L in their last 22 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Tottenham away?
Tottenham's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.90 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Burnley or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Tottenham in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when Tottenham won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
4
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Tottenham?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Tottenham have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Burnley 2-2 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 50%, Tottenham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Burnley) and 50% (Tottenham).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 50% of games; Tottenham in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burnley's recent matches and 50% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Burnley's recent games and 50% of Tottenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Burnley defy the odds to beat Tottenham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Tottenham 1-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.90 xG and Tottenham 1.13 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tottenham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.69 / defence 0.92 against Tottenham attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 29% | Draw 31% | Tottenham 41%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 41%, Tottenham 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Tottenham's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.