Brighton 0-3 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brighton at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brighton vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brighton host Burnley at The American Express Community Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Brighton have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brighton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brighton's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at The American Express Community Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Burnley have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Brighton have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Brighton, 0 for Burnley and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Brighton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Brighton in-play and half-time data (21 games, 9 at home): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Burnley in-play and half-time data (21 games, 9 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brighton 57% versus Burnley 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brighton 19% | Burnley 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brighton 1.08 xG and Burnley 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brighton attack 0.765 / defence 1.010 | Burnley attack 0.649 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.277. Brighton's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Brighton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Brighton games / 21 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brighton 40% | Draw 33% | Burnley 27%. Fair-value odds: Brighton 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Burnley 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brighton at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brighton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Brighton 50% | Burnley 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brighton vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: The American Express Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brighton 40% | Draw 33% | Burnley 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Brighton 1.08 / Burnley 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Brighton attack 0.765 / def 1.010 | Burnley attack 0.649 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Brighton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Brighton xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Burnley xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brighton vs Burnley kick off?
Brighton vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at The American Express Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Brighton vs Burnley?
Brighton 0 - 3 Burnley.
Where is Brighton vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The American Express Community Stadium.
What competition is Brighton vs Burnley part of?
Brighton vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Brighton vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Brighton a 40% chance of winning, Burnley a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Brighton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Brighton and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Brighton vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Brighton 1W | Draws 0 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Brighton and Burnley in?
Brighton (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Burnley (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brighton's attack rating (0.77) and Burnley's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Brighton's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
40%
2.50
33%
3.03
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Brighton xG
Total xG
1.92
0.84
Burnley xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brighton vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Brighton and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Brighton and 0.84 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Brighton vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brighton's recent record stands at 5W 12D 4L from 21 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Brighton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 1W 11D 9L across 21 games — 0.67 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brighton by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Brighton have managed 2W 5D 2L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 0W 5D 4L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brighton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brighton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 0.81 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brighton
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brighton and Burnley in coming into this match?
Brighton have gone 5W 12D 4L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Burnley have gone 1W 11D 9L in their last 21 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brighton at home or Burnley away?
Brighton's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brighton at home: 1.22 PPG; Burnley away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brighton and Burnley runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brighton go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Burnley won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brighton's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Brighton
2
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Brighton have won 3, Burnley have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brighton and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Burnley 0-2 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between Brighton and Burnley?
Brighton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brighton 56%, Burnley 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Brighton and 44% for Burnley.
On the defensive side: Brighton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Brighton have failed to score in 33% of games; Burnley in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brighton home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brighton play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Brighton's games and 56% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brighton vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Brighton's recent games and 44% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Brighton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Brighton 0-3 at The American Express Community Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 1.08 xG and Burnley 0.84 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Brighton fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Burnley outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against Burnley attack 0.65 / defence 1.26, drawn from 24/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brighton 40% | Draw 33% | Burnley 27%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 19%, Burnley 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brighton's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brighton arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Brighton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.