Brentford 1-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brentford at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brentford vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton make the trip to Brentford Community Stadium to face Brentford in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Brentford (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brentford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brentford's home record at Brentford Community Stadium: 1W 1D 4L from 6 Premier League appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Everton's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in Premier League this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Brentford against 1.10 for Everton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Brentford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Everton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brentford 58% versus Everton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brentford 50% | Everton 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brentford 1.41 xG and Everton 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brentford attack 0.853 / defence 1.234 | Everton attack 0.706 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.340. Everton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.457 — this is suppressing Brentford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Brentford games / 12 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brentford 42% | Draw 27% | Everton 31%. Fair-value odds: Brentford 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Everton 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brentford as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brentford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Brentford 50% | Everton 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brentford vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Brentford Community Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brentford 42% | Draw 27% | Everton 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Brentford 1.41 / Everton 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Brentford attack 0.853 / def 1.234 | Everton attack 0.706 / def 1.457 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Brentford (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Brentford xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Everton xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brentford vs Everton kick off?
Brentford vs Everton kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Brentford Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Brentford vs Everton?
Brentford 1 - 0 Everton.
Where is Brentford vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Brentford Community Stadium.
What competition is Brentford vs Everton part of?
Brentford vs Everton is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Brentford vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Brentford a 42% chance of winning, Everton a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Brentford and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Brentford vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Everton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brentford and Everton in?
Brentford (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Everton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brentford's attack at 0.85x the league average against Everton's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.71x) against Brentford's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.69
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Brentford xG
Total xG
2.57
1.17
Everton xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
8%
13.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brentford vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Brentford and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Brentford and 1.17 for Everton, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Brentford vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Brentford have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 3W 4D 5L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Brentford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton's form line: 4W 3D 5L from 12 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Brentford against 1.25 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brentford have posted 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L). That actually lags their 1.08 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Everton have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Everton's season.
Attack vs Defence
Brentford are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.33 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brentford
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brentford and Everton in coming into this match?
Brentford have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Everton have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brentford at home or Everton away?
Everton's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brentford at home: 0.67 PPG; Everton away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brentford have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Brentford
4
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Brentford have won 3, Everton have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Brentford and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Brentford 2-2 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brentford 50%, Everton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Brentford) and 67% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brentford have failed to score in 33% of games; Everton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brentford home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brentford play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brentford's recent matches and 50% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brentford vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Brentford's matches and 67% of Everton's.
Prediction vindicated as Brentford edge out Everton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford beat Everton 1-0 at Brentford Community Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.41 xG and Everton 1.17 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Everton attack 0.71 / defence 1.46, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brentford 42% | Draw 27% | Everton 31%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 50%, Everton 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brentford's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brentford 1.08 PPG, Everton 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. Brentford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.