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Stalemate at Burnley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 18, as Burnley and Everton drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.84 xG and Everton 1.22 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Everton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.68 / defence 1.19 against Everton attack 0.81 / defence 0.80, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 26% | Draw 30% | Everton 45%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 38%, Everton 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Everton's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.71 PPG, Everton 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights