Burnley 0-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Everton (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burnley face Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Burnley welcome Everton to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Burnley are significantly better at Turf Moor than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Everton's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Burnley, 3 for Everton and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Everton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Everton trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 38% versus Everton 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Burnley 38% | Everton 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.84 xG and Everton 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.677 / defence 1.185 | Everton attack 0.809 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.270. Burnley's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Burnley games / 55 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 30% | Everton 45%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Everton 2.22. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 40% | Everton 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 30% | Everton 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Burnley 0.84 / Everton 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.677 / def 1.185 | Everton attack 0.809 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Everton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Everton xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Everton kick off?
Burnley vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 December 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Everton?
Burnley 0 - 0 Everton.
Where is Burnley vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Everton part of?
Burnley vs Everton is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 26% chance of winning, Everton a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Burnley and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Everton?
Record (4 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 0 | Everton 3W.
What form are Burnley and Everton in?
Burnley (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Everton (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.68x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
26%
3.92
30%
3.38
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.06
1.22
Everton xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
8%
13.22
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 15.5 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Burnley and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Burnley and 1.22 for Everton, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burnley come into this having played 55 games, going 26W 16D 13L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.31 PPG from 55 outings (18W 18D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.71 PPG, Everton on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Burnley's home form reads 13W 9D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (9W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.09 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Everton in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 26W 16D 13L in their last 55 games (1.71 PPG), while Everton have gone 18W 18D 19L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Everton away?
Burnley's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.78 PPG; Everton away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Burnley or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Everton in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burnley and Everton runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Burnley's record when hosting Everton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
4
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Everton?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Everton have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Everton 2-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Burnley 30% BTTS, Everton 37%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Burnley and 26% for Everton.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 37% of games; Everton in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Burnley's recent matches and 37% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Burnley's recent games and 26% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Everton tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Everton in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Burnley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 18, as Burnley and Everton drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.84 xG and Everton 1.22 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Everton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.68 / defence 1.19 against Everton attack 0.81 / defence 0.80, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 26% | Draw 30% | Everton 45%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 38%, Everton 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.71 PPG, Everton 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.