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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Everton (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burnley face Everton.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Burnley welcome Everton to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Burnley are significantly better at Turf Moor than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Everton's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Everton's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Burnley, 3 for Everton and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Everton winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Burnley trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Everton trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 38% versus Everton 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Burnley 38% | Everton 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.84 xG and Everton 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.677 / defence 1.185 | Everton attack 0.809 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.270. Burnley's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Burnley games / 55 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 30% | Everton 45%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Everton 2.22. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 40% | Everton 40% BTTS from recent games.

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