Liverpool 1-0 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liverpool at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Liverpool vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Liverpool and West Ham meet at Anfield in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Liverpool have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Liverpool have posted 8W 2D 0L at Anfield — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Anfield.
West Ham (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Liverpool's favour (2.30 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Liverpool, 1 for West Ham and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with West Ham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Liverpool half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
West Ham half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 42% versus West Ham 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 73% | West Ham 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 2.09 xG and West Ham 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.651 / defence 0.731 | West Ham attack 0.943 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.077 / away 1.356. Liverpool carry an above-average attack strength of 1.651 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Liverpool's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 26 Liverpool games / 27 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 64% | Draw 20% | West Ham 16%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | West Ham 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Liverpool 40% | West Ham 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 64% | Draw 20% | West Ham 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Liverpool 2.09 / West Ham 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.651 / def 0.731 | West Ham attack 0.943 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.077 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
0.94
West Ham xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs West Ham kick off?
Liverpool vs West Ham kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs West Ham?
Liverpool 1 - 0 West Ham.
Where is Liverpool vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs West Ham part of?
Liverpool vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 64% chance of winning, West Ham a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Liverpool and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and West Ham?
Record (1 meetings): Liverpool 0W | Draws 0 | West Ham 1W.
What form are Liverpool and West Ham in?
Liverpool (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. West Ham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Liverpool's attack at 1.65x the league average against West Ham's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (0.94x) against Liverpool's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.96
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Liverpool xG
Total xG
3.02
0.94
West Ham xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
12%
8.05
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
2%
50.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Liverpool and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.94 for West Ham, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs West Ham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Liverpool have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 18W 6D 2L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Ham's form line: 12W 6D 8L from 26 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against West Ham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Liverpool have posted 2.50 PPG from 12 outings (9W 3D 0L).
On the road, West Ham have gone 5W 3D 4L from 12 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Liverpool are averaging 2.69 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.62 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham in 62%.
Defensively: Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and West Ham in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 18W 6D 2L in their last 26 games (2.31 PPG), while West Ham have gone 12W 6D 8L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or West Ham away?
Liverpool's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.50 PPG; West Ham away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Liverpool or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, West Ham in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Liverpool have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liverpool won 0-5 on 29 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Ham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Liverpool
1
Draws
1
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and West Ham?
From 10 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 8, West Ham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Liverpool 5-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and West Ham?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 42%, West Ham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Liverpool and 50% for West Ham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; West Ham in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Liverpool's recent matches and 50% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liverpool vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Liverpool's matches and 50% of West Ham's.
Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out West Ham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat West Ham 1-0 at Anfield, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 2.09 xG and West Ham 0.94 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Liverpool fell 1.1 short of their projected output. West Ham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.65 / defence 0.73 against West Ham attack 0.94 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 64% | Draw 20% | West Ham 16%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 73%, West Ham 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
West Ham's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.