Burnley 0-2 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Leicester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Turf Moor plays host to Burnley versus Leicester in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Tuesday 1 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burnley have posted 2W 6D 2L at Turf Moor — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Leicester's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Leicester have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Burnley, 0.90 for Leicester — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burnley lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 10 at home): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Leicester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 10 at away): BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 48% versus Leicester 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 35% | Leicester 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.24 xG and Leicester 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.717 / defence 0.823 | Leicester attack 0.890 / defence 1.581. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.334. Burnley's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Leicester bring a strong defensive rating of 1.581 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Burnley games / 23 Leicester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 42% | Draw 29% | Leicester 29%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Leicester 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Burnley 40% | Leicester 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Leicester | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 42% | Draw 29% | Leicester 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Burnley 1.24 / Leicester 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.717 / def 0.823 | Leicester attack 0.890 / def 1.581 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Burnley (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Leicester xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Leicester kick off?
Burnley vs Leicester kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 March 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Leicester?
Burnley 0 - 2 Leicester.
Where is Burnley vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Leicester part of?
Burnley vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 42% chance of winning, Leicester a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Burnley and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Leicester?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 1 | Leicester 0W.
What form are Burnley and Leicester in?
Burnley (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Leicester (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.72x the league average against Leicester's defence at 1.58x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Leicester's attack (0.89x) against Burnley's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.48
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.21
0.98
Leicester xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
8%
11.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Burnley and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Burnley and 0.98 for Leicester, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burnley come into this having played 23 games, going 3W 12D 8L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Leicester sit at 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Burnley against 1.17 for Leicester. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Burnley's home form reads 2W 6D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Leicester have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.61 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester in 70%.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Leicester
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Leicester in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 3W 12D 8L in their last 23 games (0.91 PPG), while Leicester have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Leicester away?
Burnley's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.20 PPG; Leicester away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Burnley or Leicester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Leicester in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Burnley
1
Draws
1
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Leicester?
From 2 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Leicester have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2022, when Burnley 0-2 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Leicester?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 40% for Burnley, 90% for Leicester — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Burnley) and 80% (Leicester).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Leicester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Burnley's games and 90% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burnley vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Burnley's recent games and 80% of Leicester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Leicester cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Burnley 0-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.24 xG and Leicester 0.98 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Leicester outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.72 / defence 0.82 against Leicester attack 0.89 / defence 1.58, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 42% | Draw 29% | Leicester 29%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 35%, Leicester 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Leicester's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 0.91 PPG, Leicester 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leicester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.