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Prediction vindicated as Brentford edge out Burnley 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brentford beat Burnley 3-4 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.06 xG and Brentford 1.67 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brentford outscored their 1.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.72 / defence 1.25 against Brentford attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 21% | Draw 30% | Brentford 49%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 40%, Brentford 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Brentford's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.57 PPG, Brentford 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brentford (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights