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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arsenal cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burnley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat Burnley 0-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.81 xG and Arsenal 1.12 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burnley fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Arsenal outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Arsenal attack 1.02 / defence 0.68, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 26% | Draw 31% | Arsenal 43%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 36%, Arsenal 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Arsenal's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.98 PPG, Arsenal 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arsenal win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights