Burnley 0-2 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arsenal (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burnley face Arsenal.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Arsenal meet at Turf Moor in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Burnley (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Burnley are significantly better at Turf Moor than their overall form suggests.
Arsenal have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Arsenal arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Arsenal hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 0–5 with Arsenal winning.
It is worth noting that Arsenal have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 39% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Arsenal — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 34% versus Arsenal 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Burnley 36% | Arsenal 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.81 xG and Arsenal 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.814 / defence 0.907 | Arsenal attack 1.017 / defence 0.681. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.220. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.681 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 Burnley games / 47 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 31% | Arsenal 43%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Arsenal 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arsenal if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 50% | Arsenal 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 31% | Arsenal 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Burnley 0.81 / Arsenal 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.814 / def 0.907 | Arsenal attack 1.017 / def 0.681 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Arsenal xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Arsenal kick off?
Burnley vs Arsenal kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Arsenal?
Burnley 0 - 2 Arsenal.
Where is Burnley vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Arsenal part of?
Burnley vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 26% chance of winning, Arsenal a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Burnley and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Arsenal?
Record (4 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 1 | Arsenal 3W.
What form are Burnley and Arsenal in?
Burnley (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Arsenal (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Burnley's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Arsenal's attack (1.02x) against Burnley's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
26%
3.82
31%
3.23
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.93
1.12
Arsenal xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
19%
5.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 16.3 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Burnley and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Burnley and 1.12 for Arsenal, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 26W 15D 6L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal's form line: 27W 15D 5L from 47 games, 2.04 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for Burnley against 2.04 for Arsenal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burnley have posted 2.09 PPG from 23 outings (13W 9D 1L).
On the road, Arsenal have gone 12W 8D 3L from 23 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 1.81 scored and 0.79 conceded. Arsenal's attacking output running into Burnley's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Arsenal in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 26W 15D 6L in their last 47 games (1.98 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 27W 15D 5L in their last 47 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Arsenal away?
Burnley's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 2.09 PPG; Arsenal away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Burnley or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Arsenal in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Arsenal have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 0-5 on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Arsenal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
1
Draws
5
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Arsenal?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Arsenal have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Arsenal 1-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Arsenal see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 30%, Arsenal 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Burnley and 35% for Arsenal.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Arsenal in 35%; Burnley have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Burnley's recent matches and 52% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Burnley's recent games and 35% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Arsenal cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Burnley 0-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.81 xG and Arsenal 1.12 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burnley fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Arsenal outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Arsenal attack 1.02 / defence 0.68, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 26% | Draw 31% | Arsenal 43%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 36%, Arsenal 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arsenal's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.98 PPG, Arsenal 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arsenal win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.