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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bournemouth and Sunderland share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth and Sunderland finished level at 1-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.85 xG and Sunderland 0.72 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bournemouth fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Sunderland attack 0.57 / defence 1.20, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 62% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 12%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 62%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 57%, Sunderland 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Sunderland's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.45 PPG, Sunderland 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights