🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Bournemouth and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth and Burnley finished level at 1-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.99 xG and Burnley 0.95 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bournemouth fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.85 / defence 0.77 against Burnley attack 0.94 / defence 1.48, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 61% | Draw 21% | Burnley 17%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 57%, Burnley 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Burnley's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.43 PPG, Burnley 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights