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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Bournemouth welcome Burnley to Vitality Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vitality Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bournemouth are significantly better at Vitality Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier League this season, Burnley have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bournemouth at 1.00 PPG versus Burnley's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bournemouth have won 2, Burnley 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Bournemouth winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Bournemouth trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Burnley trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 59% versus Burnley 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 57% | Burnley 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.99 xG and Burnley 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.854 / defence 0.772 | Burnley attack 0.943 / defence 1.479. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.304. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.479 — this is suppressing Bournemouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bournemouth's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Bournemouth games / 16 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bournemouth 61% | Draw 21% | Burnley 17%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Burnley 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 30% | Burnley 80% BTTS from recent games.

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