Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 36%, yet in-form Aston Villa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bournemouth vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Aston Villa travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth in Premier League (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bournemouth have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Aston Villa — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Aston Villa's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Aston Villa are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Bournemouth's games and 70% of Aston Villa's (from Bournemouth's last 10 home games and Aston Villa's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Aston Villa have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Bournemouth.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Bournemouth 0–4 Aston Villa — a Aston Villa win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Aston Villa have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Bournemouth trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Aston Villa trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 63% versus Aston Villa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 58% | Aston Villa 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bournemouth surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Aston Villa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.52 xG and Aston Villa 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.094 / defence 1.050 | Aston Villa attack 1.137 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.252. Data: built from Bournemouth's last 62 games and Aston Villa's last 62.
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 36% | Draw 30% | Aston Villa 35%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.80 | Draw 3.36 | Aston Villa 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aston Villa (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bournemouth's last 10 home games and Aston Villa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bournemouth 60% (last 10 home games) | Aston Villa 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 36% | Draw 30% | Aston Villa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Bournemouth 1.52 / Aston Villa 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.094 / def 1.050 | Aston Villa attack 1.137 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Aston Villa xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bournemouth vs Aston Villa FAQs
What time does Bournemouth vs Aston Villa kick off?
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Aston Villa.
Where is Bournemouth vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Aston Villa part of?
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 36% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bournemouth and Aston Villa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bournemouth vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (1.09) and Aston Villa's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aston Villa's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bournemouth's last 62 games and Aston Villa's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.36
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
3.02
1.50
Aston Villa xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
8%
13.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.50 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Bournemouth have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 23W 20D 19L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Aston Villa's form line: 33W 13D 16L from 62 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.44 PPG, Aston Villa on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bournemouth have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 31 home games (14W 8D 9L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 14W 5D 12L from their last 31 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bournemouth are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.50 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
Bournemouth (Home) vs Aston Villa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bournemouth
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
❓ Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Form FAQs
What form are Bournemouth and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 23W 20D 19L in their last 62 games (1.44 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 33W 13D 16L in their last 62 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Aston Villa away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.61 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2025, when Aston Villa won Aston Villa 4-0 Bournemouth.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Aston Villa specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Bournemouth
3
Draws
4
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Bournemouth vs Aston Villa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Aston Villa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bournemouth have won 1, Aston Villa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Aston Villa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 48%, Aston Villa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bournemouth) and 61% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bournemouth have failed to score in 26% of games; Aston Villa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bournemouth and Aston Villa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 52% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bournemouth and Aston Villa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bournemouth's recent games and 61% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and Aston Villa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 68% of Aston Villa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth and Aston Villa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth and Aston Villa finished level at 1-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.52 xG and Aston Villa 1.50 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Aston Villa attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 36% | Draw 30% | Aston Villa 35%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 58%, Aston Villa 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Aston Villa's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.44 PPG, Aston Villa 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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