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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Aston Villa edge out Sunderland 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat Sunderland 4-3 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.41 xG and Sunderland 0.79 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Aston Villa beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sunderland outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against Sunderland attack 0.71 / defence 1.04, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 50% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 19%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 56%, Sunderland 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Sunderland's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.73 PPG, Sunderland 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights