Arsenal 0-1 West Ham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Arsenal (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Arsenal face West Ham.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Emirates Stadium plays host to Arsenal versus West Ham in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arsenal have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arsenal have posted 7W 3D 0L at Emirates Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
West Ham's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Arsenal's favour (2.40 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Arsenal have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, West Ham in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, Arsenal are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 5–2 with Arsenal winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Arsenal and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Arsenal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 48% versus West Ham 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 56% | West Ham 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 2.15 xG and West Ham 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.310 / defence 0.738 | West Ham attack 0.806 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.526. Arsenal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Arsenal's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Arsenal games / 63 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 65% | Draw 21% | West Ham 14%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | West Ham 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal 60% | West Ham 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 65% | Draw 21% | West Ham 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Arsenal 2.15 / West Ham 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.310 / def 0.738 | West Ham attack 0.806 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.91
West Ham xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs West Ham kick off?
Arsenal vs West Ham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs West Ham?
Arsenal 0 - 1 West Ham.
Where is Arsenal vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs West Ham part of?
Arsenal vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 65% chance of winning, West Ham a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Arsenal and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and West Ham?
Record (7 meetings): Arsenal 5W | Draws 1 | West Ham 1W.
What form are Arsenal and West Ham in?
Arsenal (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. West Ham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Arsenal's attack rating (1.31) and West Ham's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (0.81x) against Arsenal's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.87
14%
7.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Arsenal xG
Total xG
3.06
0.91
West Ham xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
7.06
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
12%
8.60
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
2%
60.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Arsenal and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.91 for West Ham, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs West Ham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arsenal come into this having played 63 games, going 43W 13D 7L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.25 PPG from 63 outings (21W 16D 26L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of West Ham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Arsenal's home form reads 23W 6D 2L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.42 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 1.16 points per game from 31 outings (10W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arsenal are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.41 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham in 67%.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and West Ham in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 43W 13D 7L in their last 63 games (2.25 PPG), while West Ham have gone 21W 16D 26L in their last 63 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or West Ham away?
Arsenal's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.42 PPG; West Ham away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Arsenal or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, West Ham in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Arsenal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 0-6 on 11 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arsenal have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Ham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Arsenal
1
Draws
2
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and West Ham?
From 10 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 7, West Ham have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when West Ham 0-1 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and West Ham?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 55%, West Ham 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Arsenal and 68% for West Ham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play West Ham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Arsenal's games and 71% of West Ham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arsenal vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Arsenal's matches and 68% of West Ham's.
Shock result as West Ham defy the odds to beat Arsenal 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Arsenal 0-1 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 2.15 xG and West Ham 0.91 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Arsenal fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.31 / defence 0.74 against West Ham attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 65% | Draw 21% | West Ham 14%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a West Ham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 56%, West Ham 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
West Ham's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with West Ham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.