🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Crystal Palace make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Crystal Palace have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fulham lead 2W to 0W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Fulham winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Fulham — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 59% versus Crystal Palace 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Crystal Palace 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 0.96 xG and Crystal Palace 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.936 / defence 0.986 | Crystal Palace attack 0.994 / defence 0.683. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.526. Crystal Palace's defence strength of 0.683 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Fulham games / 63 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fulham 24% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 49%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Crystal Palace 2.04. Crystal Palace hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Crystal Palace as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fulham 80% | Crystal Palace 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights