Nottingham Forest 0-0 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Nottingham Forest welcome Arsenal to The City Ground. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 26 February 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Nottingham Forest — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at The City Ground this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The City Ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, Arsenal have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nottingham Forest at 1.90 PPG versus Arsenal's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Arsenal have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Nottingham Forest's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Arsenal winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Arsenal have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Arsenal in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 58% versus Arsenal 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 55% | Arsenal 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.42 xG and Arsenal 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 1.301 / defence 0.717 | Arsenal attack 1.159 / defence 0.724. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.551. Nottingham Forest carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.724 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Nottingham Forest's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Nottingham Forest games / 64 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 40% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 34%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Arsenal 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Nottingham Forest 40% | Arsenal 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Feb 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 40% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.42 / Arsenal 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 1.301 / def 0.717 | Arsenal attack 1.159 / def 0.724 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.551 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Arsenal xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 26 February 2025 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Nottingham Forest 0 - 0 Arsenal.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 40% chance of winning, Arsenal a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal?
Record (5 meetings): Nottingham Forest 1W | Draws 0 | Arsenal 4W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Arsenal in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Arsenal (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (1.30) and Arsenal's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.89
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.70
1.29
Arsenal xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.29 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Nottingham Forest have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 23W 14D 27L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal's form line: 43W 13D 8L from 64 games, 2.22 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nottingham Forest.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nottingham Forest have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (12W 8D 11L).
On the road, Arsenal have gone 19W 7D 5L from 31 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 2.22 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 43W 13D 8L in their last 64 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.42 PPG; Arsenal away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Arsenal in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when Arsenal won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Arsenal specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
5
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Arsenal have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-0 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 61%, Arsenal 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nottingham Forest) and 45% (Arsenal).
On the defensive side: Arsenal in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 42% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 45% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Nottingham Forest's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The City Ground, Regular Season - 27, as Nottingham Forest and Arsenal drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.42 xG and Arsenal 1.29 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nottingham Forest fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Arsenal landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 1.30 / defence 0.72 against Arsenal attack 1.16 / defence 0.72, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 40% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 34%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 55%, Arsenal 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Arsenal's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.