Arsenal 3-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Emirates Stadium plays host to Arsenal versus Sunderland in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Arsenal's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Arsenal have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sunderland have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sunderland away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Arsenal's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Arsenal, 0 for Sunderland and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Arsenal 2–2 Sunderland — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Arsenal half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 53% versus Sunderland 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 47% | Sunderland 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Arsenal surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Sunderland have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sunderland surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Arsenal recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 2.06 xG and Sunderland 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.253 / defence 0.817 | Sunderland attack 0.590 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.252. Arsenal carry an above-average attack rating of 1.253 — their 2.06 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sunderland's attack rating of 0.590 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.60. Data: built from Arsenal's last 62 games and Sunderland's last 24.
Result probabilities: Arsenal 69% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 8%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.44 | Draw 4.34 | Sunderland 13.28. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (69%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Arsenal 60% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 69% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Arsenal 2.06 / Sunderland 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.253 / def 0.817 | Sunderland attack 0.590 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Sunderland xG
42%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Arsenal vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Arsenal vs Sunderland kick off?
Arsenal vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Sunderland?
Arsenal 3 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Arsenal vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Sunderland part of?
Arsenal vs Sunderland is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 69% chance of winning, Sunderland a 8% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Arsenal and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Arsenal vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Arsenal's attack rating (1.25) and Sunderland's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.59x) against Arsenal's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from Arsenal's last 62 games and Sunderland's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 3-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
69%
1.44
23%
4.34
8%
13.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.67
0.60
Sunderland xG
1.44
69%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
13.28
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
1%
104.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Arsenal vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.60 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Sunderland?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Arsenal have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 36W 19D 7L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Sunderland's form line: 24W 22D 16L from 62 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sunderland.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Arsenal have posted 2.19 PPG from their last 31 home games (20W 8D 3L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 9W 10D 12L from their last 31 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Arsenal are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.11 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
Arsenal (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Arsenal
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Arsenal vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Arsenal and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 36W 19D 7L in their last 62 games (2.05 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 24W 22D 16L in their last 62 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Sunderland away?
Arsenal's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.19 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sunderland in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Arsenal and Sunderland, the earliest from November 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Arsenal have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won Arsenal 3-0 Sunderland on 7 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Arsenal
1
Draws
0
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Arsenal vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Sunderland?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Arsenal have won 2, Sunderland have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Sunderland?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 55%, Sunderland 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Arsenal) and 42% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sunderland in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Arsenal vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Arsenal and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Arsenal's recent matches and 42% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Arsenal and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Arsenal's recent games and 42% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arsenal and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Arsenal's recent matches and 61% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sunderland.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Sunderland 3-0 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 2.06 xG and Sunderland 0.60 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Arsenal beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.25 / defence 0.82 against Sunderland attack 0.59 / defence 1.10, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 69% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 8%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 47%, Sunderland 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sunderland's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.52. Form held, and they took the win. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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