Walsall 1-1 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Walsall take on Sutton Utd.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Walsall host Sutton Utd at Poundland Bescot Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Walsall have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Walsall have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sutton Utd stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sutton Utd's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Sutton Utd's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Walsall's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Walsall have won 2, Sutton Utd 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Walsall trading profile (84 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sutton Utd trading profile (84 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 49% versus Sutton Utd 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Walsall 37% | Sutton Utd 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 0.87 xG and Sutton Utd 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.837 / defence 0.762 | Sutton Utd attack 0.874 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.050. Walsall's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 84 Walsall games / 84 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Walsall 36% | Draw 38% | Sutton Utd 26%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Sutton Utd 3.85. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Sutton Utd's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
Walsall dominate the H2H record, yet Sutton Utd are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Walsall 40% | Sutton Utd 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Poundland Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 36% | Draw 38% | Sutton Utd 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 31% | xG Walsall 0.87 / Sutton Utd 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.837 / def 0.762 | Sutton Utd attack 0.874 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Sutton Utd xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Walsall vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Walsall vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Walsall 1 - 1 Sutton Utd.
Where is Walsall vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Sutton Utd part of?
Walsall vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 36% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 26% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Walsall and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Walsall vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Sutton Utd?
Record (3 meetings): Walsall 2W | Draws 1 | Sutton Utd 0W.
What form are Walsall and Sutton Utd in?
Walsall (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Sutton Utd (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Walsall's attack rating (0.84) and Sutton Utd's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Walsall's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 84/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.79
38%
2.60
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Walsall xG
Total xG
1.57
0.70
Sutton Utd xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.25
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.7 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.4%.
How many goals are Walsall and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Walsall and 0.70 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Walsall's recent record stands at 25W 28D 31L from 84 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have gone 37W 21D 26L across 84 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Walsall on 1.23 PPG, Sutton Utd on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Walsall have managed 18W 12D 12L from 42 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sutton Utd's away record stands at 12W 12D 18L across 42 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sutton Utd's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Walsall are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.30 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Sutton Utd in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 84 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Current Season
Sutton Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Walsall and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 25W 28D 31L in their last 84 games (1.23 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 37W 21D 26L in their last 84 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Sutton Utd away?
Walsall's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.57 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Walsall or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Walsall have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Walsall and Sutton Utd runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Sutton Utd won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Walsall's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Walsall
3
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Sutton Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Walsall have won 2, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Walsall 1-1 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Walsall and Sutton Utd?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 50%, Sutton Utd 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Walsall) and 43% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Walsall keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Walsall have failed to score in 26% of games; Sutton Utd in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Walsall play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Walsall's recent matches and 45% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Walsall vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Walsall's recent games and 43% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Walsall have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Walsall and Sutton Utd share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 39, as Walsall and Sutton Utd drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 0.87 xG and Sutton Utd 0.70 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.84 / defence 0.76 against Sutton Utd attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 36% | Draw 38% | Sutton Utd 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 37%, Sutton Utd 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.23 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.