AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Rochdale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Cherry Red Records Stadium plays host to AFC Wimbledon versus Rochdale in League Two, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off: Saturday 1 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AFC Wimbledon have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rochdale (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Rochdale have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for AFC Wimbledon, 0 for Rochdale and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
AFC Wimbledon half-time and goal-timing data (84 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rochdale half-time and goal-timing data (84 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 54% versus Rochdale 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 43% | Rochdale 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.28 xG and Rochdale 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.921 / defence 1.116 | Rochdale attack 0.772 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.050. Rochdale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing AFC Wimbledon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 AFC Wimbledon games / 84 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 44% | Draw 32% | Rochdale 25%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Rochdale 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Wimbledon at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Rochdale 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 44% | Draw 32% | Rochdale 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.28 / Rochdale 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.921 / def 1.116 | Rochdale attack 0.772 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Rochdale xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Rochdale.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 44% chance of winning, Rochdale a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Rochdale?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 0 | Rochdale 0W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Rochdale in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Rochdale (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (0.92) and Rochdale's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rochdale's attack (0.77x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 39/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
44%
2.29
32%
3.17
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.18
0.90
Rochdale xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.90 for Rochdale, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 16W 32D 36L from 84 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Rochdale, meanwhile, have gone 18W 25D 41L across 84 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 0.94 for Rochdale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 9W 20D 13L from 42 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rochdale's away record stands at 8W 10D 24L across 42 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 84 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Rochdale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Rochdale in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 16W 32D 36L in their last 84 games (0.95 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 18W 25D 41L in their last 84 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Rochdale away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.12 PPG; Rochdale away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
1
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Rochdale?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Rochdale have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Rochdale.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 55%, Rochdale 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AFC Wimbledon) and 43% (Rochdale).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 33% of games; Rochdale in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Rochdale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 45% of Rochdale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 43% of Rochdale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Rochdale tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rochdale defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rochdale beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.28 xG and Rochdale 0.90 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Rochdale attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 39/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 44% | Draw 32% | Rochdale 25%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Rochdale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 43%, Rochdale 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rochdale's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 0.95 PPG, Rochdale 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rochdale win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Rochdale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.