Mansfield Town 4-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
One Call Stadium plays host to Mansfield Town versus Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off: Saturday 1 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mansfield Town have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at One Call Stadium, Mansfield Town have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crawley Town (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Mansfield Town's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Crawley Town's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Mansfield Town, 1 for Crawley Town and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with Crawley Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (84 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (84 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 55% versus Crawley Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 50% | Crawley Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.55 xG and Crawley Town 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.093 / defence 1.170 | Crawley Town attack 0.748 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.050. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Mansfield Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 83 Mansfield Town games / 84 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 51% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 21%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Crawley Town 4.76. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mansfield Town 70% | Crawley Town 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 51% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Mansfield Town 1.55 / Crawley Town 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.093 / def 1.170 | Crawley Town attack 0.748 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Crawley Town xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Mansfield Town 4 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town part of?
Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 51% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mansfield Town and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Crawley Town?
Record (3 meetings): Mansfield Town 2W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Crawley Town in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mansfield Town's attack at 1.09x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.75x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 83/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.54
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.47
0.92
Crawley Town xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
4%
22.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 0.92 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mansfield Town come into this having played 84 games, going 38W 21D 25L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.17 PPG from 84 outings (26W 20D 38L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Mansfield Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mansfield Town's home form reads 21W 11D 9L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.90 points per game from 41 outings (9W 10D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 84 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 38W 21D 25L in their last 84 games (1.61 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 26W 20D 38L in their last 84 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Crawley Town away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.80 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won 4-1 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Mansfield Town
0
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 5, Crawley Town have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2025, when Mansfield Town 0-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Crawley Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 61%, Crawley Town 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mansfield Town) and 54% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Crawley Town in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Mansfield Town's games and 58% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 54% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mansfield Town run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Crawley Town 4-1 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.55 xG and Crawley Town 0.92 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Mansfield Town beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.09 / defence 1.17 against Crawley Town attack 0.75 / defence 1.24, drawn from 83/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 51% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 21%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 50%, Crawley Town 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Crawley Town's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.