Walsall 2-2 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Walsall at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Walsall vs Gillingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Walsall welcome Gillingham to Bescot Stadium in League Two (matchday 41). Kick-off is Friday 3 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Walsall stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Walsall's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gillingham — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Gillingham's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Walsall carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Walsall, 1 for Gillingham and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 7 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Walsall 0–1 Gillingham — a Gillingham win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Walsall in-play and half-time data (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 52% versus Gillingham 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 46% | Gillingham 35%). Note also that Gillingham surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Walsall recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.11 xG and Gillingham 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.787 / defence 1.012 | Gillingham attack 0.728 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.158. Walsall's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Gillingham's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Walsall's last 86 games and Gillingham's last 85.
Result probabilities: Walsall 41% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 28%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 2.41 | Draw 3.25 | Gillingham 3.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Walsall at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Walsall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Walsall's last 10 home games and Gillingham's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Walsall 40% (last 10 home games) | Gillingham 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, matchday 41 | Venue: Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 41% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Walsall 1.11 / Gillingham 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.787 / def 1.012 | Gillingham attack 0.728 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Walsall (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Gillingham xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Walsall vs Gillingham FAQs
What time does Walsall vs Gillingham kick off?
Walsall vs Gillingham kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 3 April 2026 at Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Gillingham?
Walsall 2 - 2 Gillingham.
Where is Walsall vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Gillingham part of?
Walsall vs Gillingham is a League Two fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 41% chance of winning, Gillingham a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Walsall and Gillingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Walsall vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Walsall's attack at 0.79x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Walsall's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Walsall's last 86 games and Gillingham's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
41%
2.41
31%
3.25
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Walsall xG
Total xG
1.97
0.85
Gillingham xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Walsall vs Gillingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Walsall and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Walsall and 0.85 for Gillingham, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Walsall come into this having played 85 games, going 37W 24D 24L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.21 PPG from 85 outings (25W 28D 32L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Walsall on 1.59 PPG, Gillingham on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Walsall's home form reads 19W 10D 13L across their last 42 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 1.02 points per game from their last 42 away games (9W 16D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Walsall are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.00 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
Walsall (Home) vs Gillingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Walsall
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Walsall vs Gillingham Form FAQs
What form are Walsall and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 37W 24D 24L in their last 85 games (1.59 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 25W 28D 32L in their last 85 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Gillingham away?
Walsall's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.60 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.02 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Oct 2023, when Walsall won Walsall 4-1 Gillingham.
Walsall's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Walsall
5
Draws
1
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Walsall vs Gillingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Gillingham?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Walsall have won 3, Gillingham have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Gillingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Gillingham 0-3 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Walsall and Gillingham?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 62%, Gillingham 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Walsall) and 29% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Walsall vs Gillingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Walsall and Gillingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Walsall's recent matches and 45% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Walsall and Gillingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Walsall's recent games and 29% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Gillingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Walsall's recent matches and 52% of Gillingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Walsall and Gillingham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall and Gillingham finished level at 2-2 at Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.11 xG and Gillingham 0.85 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Walsall beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gillingham outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.79 / defence 1.01 against Gillingham attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 86/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 41% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 28%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 46%, Gillingham 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.59 PPG, Gillingham 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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