Tranmere 2-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Tranmere at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Tranmere face Crawley Town.

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Fixture Analysis

Tranmere welcome Crawley Town to Prenton Park in League Two (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Tranmere stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Tranmere's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Crawley Town — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Crawley Town away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tranmere 0.60 PPG, Crawley Town 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Tranmere, 3 for Crawley Town and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Tranmere 2–0 Crawley Town — a Tranmere win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Tranmere trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Crawley Town trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tranmere 55% versus Crawley Town 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tranmere 49% | Crawley Town 55%). Note also that Crawley Town surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Tranmere recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tranmere 1.36 xG and Crawley Town 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tranmere attack 0.830 / defence 1.347 | Crawley Town attack 0.716 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.194. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.289 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tranmere's projected output up. Crawley Town's attack rating of 0.716 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Tranmere's defence rating of 1.347 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crawley Town's projected output up. Data: built from Tranmere's last 76 games and Crawley Town's last 31.

Result probabilities: Tranmere 42% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 32%. Fair-value odds: Tranmere 2.41 | Draw 3.74 | Crawley Town 3.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tranmere at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tranmere offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though recent form (Tranmere's last 10 home games and Crawley Town's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches point the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tranmere 60% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 50% (last 10 away games).

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